How elections worldwide are testing Trump’s influence abroad

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally, in support of Republican Senate candidate, former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, ahead of the midterm elections, at an entertainment complex in Port Huron, Michigan on Oct. 25, 2026.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

In August, President Donald Trump claimed that 97% of Republican candidates he backed had won their primary races.

And it's true that Trump has shown an ability to influence races particularly in Republican primaries, picking off politicians he didn't like such as Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky.

But while he hasn't shied away from expressing his opinions on foreign leaders, his influence over other countries' elections is proving less strong.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection on Sunday, defeating Trump-aligned Flávio Bolsonaro, whose father Jair had also been a Trump ally.

Also last weekend, a student-led movement in Serbia defeated the ruling party of Aleksandar Vucic, a populist leader who had cultivated ties with Trump and his circle. Vucic had served as Serbia's president from 2017, and as prime minister from 2014 to 2017.

During his concession speech, Vucic said that the loss was due to a "legitimization of a revolution carried out by the people with direct support from various European countries and the American deep state, the one that opposes President Trump."

Earlier this year, Vice President JD Vance had visited Hungary for two days and publicly backed then-Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, Orban, who is also a staunch ally and endorsed by Trump, lost that election and was ejected from office after 16 years.

In October, Trump also endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection. While the results of the Oct. 27 election are not finalized yet, the Associated Press said that Netanhayu's Likud party had appeared to lose its majority in the country's parliament.

Still, Trump's influence on any one global election remains variable, experts said.

"Elections are always national first and regional or global a very distant second," Cas Mudde, professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, told CNBC.

Furthermore, it is also not clear that Trump ever had a great influence over far-right actors elsewhere, said Stijn van Kessel, professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London.

"Far-right parties and politicians like to celebrate each others' victories as it allows them to portray themselves as part of a successful global movement," he said, adding that those relationships can sour quickly when national interests collide and the foreign partner turns toxic in the eyes of the domestic electorate.

Van Kessel pointed to the fallout between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni earlier this year, which stemmed from Italy's refusal to allow U.S. aircraft to use one of the NATO airbases for its war on Iran.

Trump later claimed that Meloni "begged" him for a photo at the G7 summit, a claim that sparked a denial from Meloni.

Right wing strength

Still, right-wing movements remain strong in numerous places globally. In France, Marine Le Pen is currently the frontrunner to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, according to a compilation of polls by Politico. However, historically she has often started out leading a crowded field of hopefuls before support consolidates around a more moderate candidate.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland, or AfD party won 20.8% of the vote in the country's February 2025 federal election, making it the country's largest opposition party. Trump ally Javier Milei leads Argentina, and Colombia's new President Abelardo de la Espriella was elected on a far-right platform.

Still, Mudde noted that most far-right leaders disassociate themselves from Trump when he becomes more unpopular in their country. Trump's poll numbers remain near a record low even in the U.S. over issues including the Iran war and the cost of living as energy prices soar.

"Voters are willing to give anyone a shot when they are economically frustrated, but when those experiments fail, they move on to something else," said David Barker, a professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C. At this point, Trump "undermines his allies' ability to maintain support."