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A response to Veritasium's video on Newcomb's Paradox. See my full conversation with Derek over on the MinutePhysics patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/minutephysics
See Derek's original video over on the Veritasium channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol18JoeXlVI
REFERENCES
- Newcomb's Paradox: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1466-2_7
- Quantum solution: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.quant-ph/0202074
- Quantum causality: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.7.031021
- https://www.pokutta.com/blog/newcomb-four-lenses/
- https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=30
- Veritasium video references
Link to Patreon Supporters: http://www.minutephysics.com/supporters/
And Facebook: http://facebook.com/minutephysics
Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!
Created by Henry Reich
Produced by Joshua Chawner
00:00 Intro
00:51 Newcomb's Paradox
02:01 One Box vs. Two Boxes
03:02 Causal Calculus
04:17 Intervention
05:45 Perfect Prediction
07:32 Quantum Mechanics
09:39 Henry's Thoughts
11:11 What Should You Choose?
12:09 Join MinutePhysics!
12:28 Derek's Thoughts
See my full conversation with Derek over on the MinutePhysics patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/minutephysics
Just so that the predictor and I are on the same page, I would a 100% choose the one box.
"Causal calculus says consuming iocaine powder is causally linked with drinking what one is given, and you gave me this glass, so I clearly can't choose the glass in front of me. But causal intervention says an intervener can change the outcome, and you're an intervener, so I clearly can't choose the glass in front of you." "Truly you have a dizzying intellect." "Wait till I get going!"
This very much feels like the output of someone who was frustrated by the exploration of the paradox in the Vertitasium video (as was I!)
i love it when minutephysics suddenly turns into 13minutemaths every once in a while
Joke's on you; I already didn't know what to think at the beginning of the video!
8:11 Quantum Mechanics destroying and saving the setup at the same time is the most Quantum Mechanics thing ever
The captions spell "newcomb" as "nukem" and I kept imagining Duke Nukem trying to choose a box
A Million is enough for my life to get good, I don't want to risk it for another thousand
Everyone is commenting on which box they would choose, and someone's saving all that data. We're starting to build the machine that can make the prediction.
I'd take only the box with the $1k and leave the mistery box as a tip for the predictor.
10:08 I once demonstrated this to students by “inventing” a machine that detects a rare disease with 99.9% accuracy. All it does is display a message which tells them they don’t have it. 😂
Taking one box aligns my interests and the predictor being, while picking two forces me to outsmart it. Since I still get a million dollars when picking one box the $1k is a small price to get such a being on my side.
12:05 your prediction was actually off, cuz i was gonna choose 1 box and wasn't confused at all
This video just reaffirmed my 1-boxer strategy
I'm deleting my watch history to hide my knowledge level about paradoxes from the predictor
This seems less like a debate about what the rational choice would be than a debate about what the precise premises of the thought experiment are...
Therefore you only take the box with the 1000 to fool the supernatural being. :P (Edit: Bad spelling of 'therefore'.)
Before the video : one box. After the video : one box.
If I get 1M, then I can leave 1000 behind without signifficant loss.