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Brazil runoff live updates: world leaders congratulate Lula on historic election win as Bolsonaro refuses to concede

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6h agoWhat you need to know about the historic Brazilian election vote

It has just gone past 06:15am in Brasília and 09:15am in London, where I am blogging from. Here is a quick recap of the main updates from one of the most significant and bruising elections in Brazilian history:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election comeback, defeating his far-right opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, to claim a historic fourth term in power.
Lula secured 51.79% of the votes compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court – about 4.4m more votes
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept the election result, and has called for it to be annulled.
The 45-year-old senator called into question a late-Sunday decision by a Lula-appointed supreme court justice that extended voting by two hours over alleged voter transport irregularities.
His refusal to concede defeat has echoes of his father’s reaction after losing to Lula in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro never accepted his loss and was later sentenced by the supreme court to 27-years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.
Lula, who highlighted a track record of falling poverty and inequality during his campaign, becomes the first president in Brazilian history to win a fourth term.
It is also the first time, since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988, that a candidate who lost the first round of voting went on to overturn the result and win the presidency. Lula’s new term is set to begin on 5 January 2027.
The leftist president’s victory is a blow for the US president, who had been hoping Bolsonaro would become the latest in a series of pro-Trump leaders to take power in South America.
Numerous world leaders have congratulated Lula for his dramatic election win, but so far Donald Trump has remained silent.

You can read more in this insightful recap from my colleagues, Tom Phillips and Tiago Rogero:

Key events

Tom Phillips

Tom Phillips is the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent

I’ve been speaking to Brazil’s former environment minister, the world-renowned environmentalist Marina Silva, here in São Paulo.

A few days ago she told me that if Flávio Bolsonaro were to be elected president he would seek to finish the “perverse project” of rampant rainforest destruction initiated by his jailed far-right father.

On Sunday night Silva was in a far more upbeat mood as she arrived at the hall where Lula was celebrating his election triumph with hundreds of ecstatic supporters.

“My heart is happy and filled with gratitude to God and the Brazilian people,” she told me.

“The thing I most feared was that our Indigenous territories would be invaded again [under another Bolsonaro government]. Now, I am certain that they will be preserved and that there is no risk of illegal miners returning to destroy these populations,” Silva said.

Brazil's former minister of the environment Marina Silva. Photograph: Adriano Machado/Reuters

Jair Bolsonaro spent his 2019-22 presidency stripping away environmental and Indigenous protests and was nicknamed “Captain Chainsaw” because of the devastation inflicted on the environment under his watch.

After beating Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, Lula launched a major crackdown to evict illegal miners from Indigenous lands and a broader environmental offensive across the Amazon that cut deforestation to its lowest levels since the late 80s.

Those efforts will now continue.

Summary of the day so far …

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election fightback, defeating his far-right opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, to claim a historic fourth term in power.
However, soon after Brazil’s electoral authority confirmed Lula’s victory, Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat and asked for the results to be annulled.
Following in the footsteps of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who four years ago also refused to acknowledge his defeat to Lula – before attempting a coup and being convicted for it – the senator cited a supreme court justice’s decision to extend voting hours as the alleged reason.
His claim apears to be making little headway, with president of the electoral court, justice Kassio Nunes Marques, and the heads of the supreme court, the lower house and the senate all recognising the result and congratulating the incumbent on his re-election.
The unexpected result has caused some market turmoil, with Brazil’s National Treasury cancelling ⁠auctions of inflation-linked ⁠and fixed-rate government bonds, the São Paulo stock exchange halting trading, and Brazil’s real weakened ⁠12.2% ⁠against the US ⁠dollar.
The Kremlin has welcomed Lula’s election victory, saying the leftist president had done “a lot” to develop ties with Russia. Numerous other world leaders have congratulated Lula for his dramatic election win, but so far Donald Trump has remained silent.

You can find the full election results here.

Our pictures team has put together this gallery of Lula supporters celebrating his shock election victory.

AFP has a quick snap that the São Paulo stock exchange has halted trading over a sharp drop after the election result.

Brazil’s National Treasury said in ⁠a ⁠statement on Monday it has canceled ⁠the conventional auctions of inflation-linked ⁠and fixed-rate government bonds scheduled ‌for ‌27 October and ‌29 October, Reuters reports.

Reuters reports that the currency market speculators have had their say on the election result – Brazil’s real weakened ⁠12.2% ⁠against the US ⁠dollar in spot trading ⁠early on Monday.

Tiago Rogero

Tiago Rogero is the Guardian’s South America correspondent, based in Brazil

Flávio Bolsonaro’s decision not to concede and to seek the annulment of the election result is finding little support among Brazil’s main institutions.

Both the president of the electoral court, justice Kassio Nunes Marques, who was appointed by the senator’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, and the heads of the supreme court, the lower house and the senate have recognised the result and congratulated the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, on his re-election.

Bolsonaro is basing his request for annulment on a decision by supreme court justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting by two hours so that voters who had been denied the mandatory free public transport could cast their ballots, after a request from Lula’s campaign.

But in saying that Zanin had “changed the rules of the game”, Bolsonaro did not mention that his own campaign had also requested the same extension.

Marques, of the electoral court, said that extending voting hours had caused “no change” to the election result.

Bolsonaro-aligned politicians are insisting the election should be annulled, including congressman Nikolas Ferreira, whom many regard as the most popular figure on the far-right outside the Bolsonaro family.

“What we are seeing is an election that is impossible to recognise,” said Ferreira, who, before the count, had already given indications that the far-right would not accept the result by posting: “Either we win. Or we win. You’ve been warned.”

However, not everyone in their camp is embracing Bolsonaro’s claims. The clan’s “spiritual guru”, evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, posted a video saying: “Lula won the election … I learned to respect the sovereign will of a people. I’m not going to come here with any talk, any chatter or speculation about things I cannot prove. I deeply regret it, but this is the decision of the Brazilian people.”

Jason Rodrigues

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first came to the attention of many Guardian readers in 1984, when as the new leader of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (the Workers’ Party) he spoke at an event in London.

The former lathe operator and trade unionist told of his contempt for the forthcoming non-democratic presidential elections, devised by the country’s military rulers, that would be held via an electoral college not a direct public vote.

He added that the elections would not bring the changes he believed his country desperately needed: “There will be no break with the IMF; no attempt to try or even investigate people for corruption in high places; no policy for land reform – and without these there can be no tackling of the country’s fundamental problems.”

Lula would go on to contest four Brazilian presidential elections, winning on his fourth attempt in 2002.

1979 file photo shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being lifted by metalworker colleagues after a union rally. Photograph: Claudinei Petroli/AFP/Getty Images

You can read the original Guardian report by Michael Simmons here: Lula is just waiting for the revolution

Libby Brooks

The immediate aftermath of the election results is likely to be fraught, warns the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, with Flávio Bolsonaro saying it was “impossible to concede the election result”.

“The Bolsonaro response is exactly as I feared but I don’t think it will mean very much,” Tom says. “All these world leaders are now recognising Lula’s win and I don’t think Bolsonaro has a hope of overturning this result”.

Tom suspects that in the coming days Bolsonaro will head to the States, to avoid ongoing criminal investigations.

“That’s not to say there might not be violence from his supporters, but his political career is done. The fact they’ve lost is a sign that the name ‘Bolsonaro’ is toxic for a slight majority of Brazilian people.”

Flávio Bolsonaro speaks to the press after the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil. Photograph: Thenews2/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Graeme Wearden

Brazil’s debt is dropping in value after Lula won a dramatic victory over his far-right opponent.

Investors had anticipated that a Bolsonaro win would have led to a new push to rein in Brazil’s public debt, and may now be keen to sell Brazilian debt and the country’s currency, the real.

Viktor Szabó, investment director for emerging market debt at Aberdeen Investments, explains why bond investors are nervous:

double quotation markLula’s campaign did pledge fiscal consolidation, but at a slower pace than his rival and with the explicit condition that spending cuts should not fall on lower-income Brazilians. The government’s own projections show the primary balance improving only gradually, to a surplus of 1.3% of GDP by 2030. His running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, pointed to campaign funding and excessive public-sector salaries as areas for savings. Neither comes close to the scale of the problem.

Brazil has little room left for this kind of politics. Gross public debt has climbed to around 83% of GDP, up more than 10 percentage points during this administration, and a deficit close to 10% of GDP is now almost entirely interest. Brazil pays one of the highest real interest rates in the world on a debt that keeps growing, which is the definition of an unsustainable path, and the bill falls on companies and households as much as on the Treasury.

Libby Brooks

Last week, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, travelled to Roraima, the northern state where Bolsonaro registered his best result nationwide. On his trip, he heard first-hand from Indigenous leaders and conservationists on why the populist’s success was causing panic.

His father’s environmentally devastating administration facilitated an illegal gold rush – turbo-charged by record global gold prices – that ravaged the Yanomami Indigenous reserve on the northern reaches of the Amazon.

When Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, the left-winger launched an environmentalist mission to expel the illegal miners, taking on the multibillion dollar extraction industry. Alongside wider green policies, he reduced deforestation in the Amazon to record lows.

“Tragically,” says Tom, “the environment only came up in the final presidential debate of this campaign.”

“Given that the Amazon makes up such a large portion of Brazil, and how important that region is to the global climate crisis, it’s amazing that it’s not been debated more. But people were voting more on economy, public security and culture war issues.”

In that final debate last Friday, Tom says that Lula “tried to show off the excellent, if incomplete, work that his government’s done in protecting the environment”. Many will be relieved at Bolsonaro’s loss, as his vision for the Amazon was almost identical to his father’s.

While a Lula victory brings hope that these policies will continue, he will be working with a newly elected congress that features a record number of rightwing politicians hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental issues.

Trees lie in a deforested area of the Amazon rainforest in the municipality of Autazes, in the Amazonas state. Photograph: Edmar Barros/AP

Brazil remains a deeply divided country and Lula will have to navigate a hostile Congress if he is to make significant legislative changes in his fourth term.

This is because the Congress was packed full of Bolsonaro allies after a surge of right-wing voting recast Brazil’s legislature in favour of the president’s enemies.

During his current term, Lula has struggled to name nominees and win Senate approval for them at key institutions, including the supreme court, central bank and antitrust watchdog, and that is likely to ⁠be even more difficult going forward.

His options are also constrained by a gloomy economic outlook, with Brazil experiencing soaring debt and entrenched structural problems.

The Kremlin has welcomed Lula’s election victory, saying the leftist president had done “a lot” to develop ties with Russia.

“We welcome Mr Lula’s victory. He does a lot, not only for the development of bilateral relations but also for advancing processes within the framework of Brics,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Brazil has maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia despite Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

Both countries were among the earliest members of Brics (alongside India, China and South Africa), a grouping, established in 2009, that was conceived as a counterweight to western dominance.

Libby Brooks

Even though Flávio Bolsonaro has lost this election, my colleague Libby Brooks has looked at why the 45-year-old senator struck a chord with so many voters across Brazil:

Evangelical Christianity has expanded across Brazil in recent decades, with church leaders throwing their support behind the socially conservative policies favoured by Bolsanaro Sr and Jr.

Pro-gun Flavio Bolsonaro harnessed voter frustration at chronic levels of urban crime and violence. Despite being embedded in Brazilian politics for decades, he successfully portrayed himself as an anti-establishment outsider, using social media far more effectively than his rival.

And others believe he had significant help: a dozen watchdogs and research groups have published reports alleging that Meta may have favoured the senator’s campaign.

The controversy grew after Brazils’ electoral court ordered Meta not to give the candidates “unequal treatment”, while the company called the allegations “false and unfounded”.

Brazilians protested outside Meta’s headquarters in São Paulo last week, alleging the tech firm restricted Lula’s reach. Photograph: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images

Here is some footage of Lula’s victory speech, in which he thanked the Brazilian youth for rallying support for his cause, and of Bolsonaro refusing to concede defeat as he vows to pursue legal action and have the election result annulled:

Lula re-elected for fourth term as Bolsonaro refuses to accept Brazil election result – videoWhat you need to know about the historic Brazilian election vote

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election comeback, defeating his far-right opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, to claim a historic fourth term in power.
Lula secured 51.79% of the votes compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court – about 4.4m more votes
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept the election result, and has called for it to be annulled.
The 45-year-old senator called into question a late-Sunday decision by a Lula-appointed supreme court justice that extended voting by two hours over alleged voter transport irregularities.
His refusal to concede defeat has echoes of his father’s reaction after losing to Lula in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro never accepted his loss and was later sentenced by the supreme court to 27-years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.
Lula, who highlighted a track record of falling poverty and inequality during his campaign, becomes the first president in Brazilian history to win a fourth term.
It is also the first time, since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988, that a candidate who lost the first round of voting went on to overturn the result and win the presidency. Lula’s new term is set to begin on 5 January 2027.
The leftist president’s victory is a blow for the US president, who had been hoping Bolsonaro would become the latest in a series of pro-Trump leaders to take power in South America.
Numerous world leaders have congratulated Lula for his dramatic election win, but so far Donald Trump has remained silent.

You can read more in this insightful recap from my colleagues, Tom Phillips and Tiago Rogero: